<aside> 💡 Campaigns need a “theory of change” that summarizes our hypothesis about how we’ll win our demand, pulling together many elements of our strategy.
</aside>
At the start of a season, even returning championship NBA teams often don’t know how they’ll overcome their opponents. They have a theory about how they’ll put key players on the court; how they’ll build their team’s ability to move gracefully and powerfully together; who their primary rivals will be, and which comparative strengths will pose a challenge. They can’t anticipate internal obstacles like injuries or unexpected player underperformance. But they do settle on offensive and defensive playbooks, and a common understanding of what they believe it will take to win the number of games needed to get into the playoffs.
Our campaign theory of change is similar: we’re trying to accelerate changes in our material conditions that often require us to radically jolt the existing status quo, dislodging pillars of power that are not easily shifted. But that kind of “campaign roadmap” – even if it won’t play itself out exactly as expected – is invaluable for a team waging struggle together. We always have limited resources for activating and winning over our targets, base and audiences. A theory of change, or campaign “mission statement,” ensures alignment on key questions and, ideally, helps us agree on “how we’ll know if we need to rethink and regroup.”
Problem, Target, Demand & Base
If we activate THESE PEOPLE, who are currently inactive, to take THIS ACTION, that will create pressure on THIS POINT OF LEVERAGE, which will make it more difficult for our primary target, THIS PERSON, to keep doing their status quo behavior, which is in large part responsible for THIS SPECIFIC PROBLEM. If we win THIS CHANGE we are demanding of them, it will CREATE THIS OUTCOME towards solving the problem. This campaign will also create pathways for THIS GROUP, our base, who are already motivated, to take action.
Coming Opportunities
In the next TIME WINDOW, we’ll have opportunities to put “the wind that’s already blowing” in our “campaign sails.” These upcoming events will be chances to elevate our demands because attention will be on our issue or our targets will be vulnerable to our point of leverage: EVENTS, i.e. PRIMARY ELECTION, BUDGET CYCLE, COMMEMORATION, SHAREHOLDER MEETING, ETC.)
Broad Tactics, Campaign Timeline & Secondary Targets
On a scale of 1-10, TARGET is currently experiencing THIS AMOUNT of pressure to do the behavior we want, and we want them to experience THIS AMOUNT. If we do THIS TACTIC and THIS TACTIC over THIS SPECIFIC PERIOD OF TIME, they will be forced to DO THIS instead, because the consequences of not changing their behavior will be THIS, and we believe if they don't do what we want by then, they will lose the support of THESE SPECIFIC PEOPLE they count on.